16 September 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Indian Bond yields were volatile during the week. Bonds started the week on a weak footing as rising crude oil price and global bond yields dented sentiments and the benchmark 10yr Bond yield touched a high of 7.25% on the first day of the week before value buying crept in.
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August - 2023
Macro takes front seat
August 2023 saw deceleration in progress of monsoon, higher than expected inflation print and unexpected increase in CRR requirement for banks by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) resulting in the Nifty50 index correcting by 2.5%. The rally in small and midcap indices continued due to strong buying by domestic institutional investors.
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28th August 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Indian Bond yields remained largely stable during the week though the curve flattened further with short end (2-3yrs) yields rising by 3-5 bps while the longer end bond yields stable or lower by couple of basis points.
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21 August 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Indian Bond yields remained stable during the week after the benchmark 10yr bond yield touched 7.25% last week. There was decent buying interest from investors as the benchmark 10yr bond yield touched 7.25% as value buying emerged.
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July - 2023
A mixed bag of corporate results
Indian equities continued their upward trajectory, led by strong FII buying and risk-on sentiment in the market in July with the Nifty50 Index gaining 2.9% for the month.
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31 July 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Bond yields continued their northward journey this week as global yields surged led by the bear steepening in the US curve which led the 10yr US yield towards 4.20% as higher supply of treasuries spooked the long end of the US bond curve.
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24 July 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Bond yields edged higher in the last two days after being stable through the week. The erratic distribution of monsoons and global geopolitical developments sustain the concerns on food Inflation.
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17 July 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Bond yields remained largely stable in a week dominated by vagaries of nature with respect to the monsoons in India and heat wave across Europe.
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June - 2023
Market hits new highs
The Nifty rallied 3.5% in June and reached all-time high on the back of positive US economic data, receding inflationary pressures, subdued crude oil prices and some uptick in the progress in monsoon
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May - 2023
Positive momentum continues
Amid global volatility, Indian markets delivered a healthy 2.6% return in May 2023. The mid caps and small caps outperformed the large caps with their respective indices being up by 6.2% and 5.1% respectively.
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April - 2023
Well-placed despite global challenges
April 2023 saw the NIFTY moving up sharply (+ 4.1%), given easing of macro concerns and better flows. Mid Cap and Small Cap indices outperformed the Nifty as they gained 5.9% and 7.5% respectively, during the month.
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March - 2023
Relative underperformance makes risk reward better
For the month of March 2023, as well for the financial year, NIFTY was largely flat. Midcaps too were flat for the month, though slightly up (1.2%) for the financial year, while small caps were down 1.8% for the month, and down 13.8% for the year.
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Feb - 2023
Concerns remain, so do the opportunities
The Nifty Index declined 2% in February - its third consecutive month of decline. Mid-cap and small-cap indices were down nearly 2% and 4%, respectively. Sector-wise, power, metals and oil & gas were the laggards.
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Jan - 2023
Prudence over populism
Indian markets declined by 2.4% (NIFTY) in the month of January and underperformed most of its developed as well as developing market peers.
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Dec - 2022
Consolidating yet outperforming
In tandem with most global markets, Indian markets too fell this month, with the NIFTY50 down 3.6%. In the broader markets, mid
and small caps, though down, outperformed the large caps, with their respective indices being down 1.7% and 2.5%, respectively.
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Nov - 2022
Macro Stability and Earnings growth should keep India in good stead
The Indian markets had another strong month with the NIFTY gaining 4.1% during the month. In the broader markets, large caps outperformed the mid and small caps with their respective indices being up 1.9% and 3% respectively.
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Oct - 2022
Markets are supported by government focus on macro stability; corporate earnings are holding
The Indian markets had a strong month and closed in the green (Nifty50 +5.4%) outperforming most regional markets such as Malaysia,
Indonesia, Taiwan, Shanghai and Hong Kong.
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Sept - 2022
Relatively well placed
In line with global markets, Indian markets corrected in September (Nifty was down 3.7%), though it managed to outperform most of the developed as well as emerging market peers. Global events weighed heavy with the Fed raising rates by 75bps and remaining hawkish.
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Aug - 2022
Stable macro and resilient earnings growth support premium valuations
Indian markets continued their momentum in the month of August, ending up 2.4%. This compares favorably to some of the developed markets which were down for the month, on the back of a hawkish stance of the Fed.
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July -2022
Resilient earnings and flows continue to support markets
July 2022 was the best month in this calendar year, with the Nifty gaining ~8.7% in the month. Midcaps outperformed the Nifty,gaining 12% during the month, while the Smallcap Index was broadly in line with the Nifty.
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June -2022
Markets are factoring in the global slowdown, but India is better placed
Along with most global markets, Indian markets too were down 4.8% in June 2022 on the back of concerns over a global recession and tightening stance from central banks.
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May -2022
Near-term concerns priced into valuations
Indian markets were down 3% in May 2022 on the back of worries over a global economic slowdown amid aggressive policy tightening,
lockdowns in China, and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
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April -2022
Earnings stable despite inflationary pressures
In line with global markets, Indian markets too were weak in April 2022 (NIFTY down 2.1%) on the back of continued tightening in developed markets and geopolitical tensions.
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Mar -2022
Positive outlook amidst transitory tensions
Despite the geopolitical tensions, higher crude prices and Fed rate hike, Indian markets were up 4%, ending the financial year with a 19% gain, probably on the back of the ruling party at the Centre winning 4 of the 5 state elections.
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Feb -2022
Geopolitical concerns cause upheavals
In tandem with global markets, Indian markets also fell (NIFTY down 3.1% during the month) on the back of geopolitical tensions soaring amidst Russia-Ukraine crisis.
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Jan - 2022
Focus on growth consistency augur well
The start of the calendar year was flattish, with the NIFTY returning -0.1% during the month. The buoyancy seen in the first half of the month retracted later on concerns of rate hikes by the US Fed, rising bond yields, and higher crude prices.
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Dec -2021
Tempering expectations
Indian markets ended the last month of the calendar year with a 2.2% return. The Midcap Index rose by 2.7% and Smallcap Index by 5.9%. The positive returns on the indices mask the intra-month volatility and continued FII selling.
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Nov -2021
Proceeding with Cautious Optimism: Unlocked economy and inflation presents a mixed outlook
Indian stocks recorded their first monthly loss since April this year as fears over the Omicron variant added to the concerns about high valuations and potential tightening of liquidity conditions. The benchmark Nifty50 Index fell 3.9% in November–the lowest since March 2020–as a poor equity-market debut for India’s largest-ever initial public offering also soured sentiment.
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Oct -2021
Cautiously Optimistic View - Equity Market View
The key equity benchmarks hit all-time high levels in the middle of the month. However, the gains were not sustained and the indices ended almost flat amid concerns over steep valuations, rising commodity prices, inflationary pressure and liquidity normalization signals by the central bank.
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Sep -2021
Indian equity market outperforms peers - Equity Market View
The Indian equity market continued its positive run, with the NIFTY rising 2.8% in Sep 2021, outperforming both its developed and developing peers. A combination of lower covid case counts and healthy pace of vaccinations, has ensured that the market remained in a positive trajectory even as concerns emanating from China (a result of the debt of a large realty company) kept some of the other markets jittery.
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Aug -2021
Index, inflation trend strong - Equity Market View
The benchmark indices ended at record high levels, with the Nifty Index gaining 8.7% - the best month in CY21, led by index heavyweights. However, the broader markets underperformed, with the Nifty Midcap 100 Index gaining 2.3% and Nifty Small Cap 100 Index declining 2.3%. Among sector indices, Power, IT and Oil & Gas gained more than 10%. Metals and Realty indices ended with a marginal loss of 1.9% and 2.9%.
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Jul- 2021
Mid and small caps see rally – Equity Market View
As in June 2021, while broader markets were largely range-bound in July 2021 and closed marginally higher (NIFTY +0.4%) they saw a strong surge in the midcaps (+3.2%) and small caps (+8.2%) segments. Realty, Metals and Cement sectors were the outperformers while Auto, Utilities and Energy underperformed.
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June -2021
Markets get the growth boost - Equity Market View
While the broader markets were largely rangebound in June 2021 and closed marginally higher (NIFTY +0.9%), there was a strong surge in the midcaps/smallcaps space with the indices up ~5% in the month. The BSE SmallCap 250 Index has given positive returns for 15 straight months – something never before witnessed by the market (the previous record was 8 months).
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May -2021
Growth, results better than expected - Equity Market View
Indian markets continued their upward journey with the Nifty Index up 6.7% in the month on the back of a decline in new Covid infections (down 60% from its peak) and the possibility of return to normalcy gathering pace. The broader markets outperformed with BSE Midcap 150 Index up 6.6% and BSE Small Cap 250 Index up 9.1%.
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Apr -2021
Vaccines, earnings offer dose of relief - Equity Market View
Renewed restrictions across India, due to a surge in daily Covid-19 cases to 400k+, led to the Nifty (-0.4%) underperforming the global markets during April. FIIs turned net sellers for the first time in 2021 as the healthcare infrastructure of the country appeared to be overwhelmed with news reports of shortage of hospital beds, oxygen and medical supplies.
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Mar -2021
Constructive outlook despite an unrepeatable performance in FY21 - Equity Market View
Amidst rising volatility, Nifty closed 1.2% higher in March 2021. It came off its highs as possibility of a second wave of coronavirus and rising bond yields played spoilsport. However, for the fiscal year, Nifty was up 71% which was its best performance in last ten years.
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Feb -2021
Market shows promise of recovery after the unlock phase - Equity Market View
Amid volatile sessions, Nifty-50 Index gained 6.7% in February. The month started on a positive note with the announcement of the Union Budget. Key benchmark indices gained 5% on February 1 as there was no change in tax rates, the focus was on growth and increase in spending.
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Jan -2021
Budget boost to stock market - Equity Market View
After a strong December, Indian markets corrected sharply in the second half of January, leading to a 2.5% decline for the month. This was primarily due to weak global markets, risk-on sentiment, and FIIs selling. While Auto and Telecom sectors were outperformers, Pharma and Metals were the laggards..
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Jan-2021
Expectations from the Budget 2021
India faced one of its weakest years on record, impacted severely by the pandemic. Economic activity slumped through the initial months of the pandemic until June before gradually resuming post September.
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Dec - 2020
Ending the year on a high view
The year 2020 ended at close to all-time highs for markets, with Nifty gaining 7.8% in Dec 2020 helped by continued inflows from FIIs on the back of the risk-on sentiment. Interestingly, the month saw the Nifty Index closing in the red only on 3 days – the lowest number since its launch..
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Nov - 2020
A Period of Positivity - Equity Market View
The Nifty50 Index rose sharply in November (+11.4%), touching new lifetime highs and outperforming regional markets such as Indonesia, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Philippines. A gradual improvement in economic activity, driven by pent-up and festive demand,
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Oct - 2020
Near term volatility? - Equity Market View
After a slight dip in the month of September, Indian markets continued their positive run in Oct 2020 and was up 3.5% (NIFTY) on the back of good inflows from FIIs. Globally, markets were a bit choppy as US elections related uncertainty and the re-emergence of lockdowns in Europe weighed on markets..
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Sep - 2020
Unlocking the Economy - Equity Market View
After 3 straight months of gains, Indian markets faced bouts of volatility in September, with Nifty declining by 1.2%. Broader markets fared better, with Nifty Midcap Index gaining 1.8% and Nifty Small Cap Index gaining 4.2%. IT and Healthcare were the top performing sectors, while Financials and Telecom dragged the markets down..
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Aug - 2020
Strong market despite mixed numbers - Equity Market View
Indian Equities rose for the third straight month in August (Nifty +2.8%), with the US markets also touching new highs during the month. Broader markets outperformed, with the BSE Mid-cap gaining 6.6% and BSE Small-cap gaining 10.1%. Among sector indices, the BSE Metals index gained 13%, followed by Realty (+11.6%) and Banks (+9.6%)..
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July - 2020
Positive news cheers markets - Equity Market View
July was another strong month for Indian equity markets (in line with EM peers) with the Nifty 50 Index rallying 7.5% during the month. The key positives are; better than expected Q1FY21 corporate results (on low expectations base), progress in numerous Covid-19 vaccine trials & treatment, and signs of earlier-than-expected normalization in economic activity.
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June 2020
Hopes of recovery but uncertainty remains- Equity Market View
Equity markets were strong in June, with the benchmark Nifty Index moving up by 7.5%. The broader market outperformed with Nifty Midcap100 Index rallying 10.8% and Nifty SmallCap100 Index rallying 15.3% (the best month for small caps in 6 years). All sectors were up vs May with Realty, Financials and Auto being the outperformers.
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May 2020
Weak economy but strong markets- Equity Market View
After registering a strong rally in April (up 15% - the highest move in a month in over ten years), May month witnessed a correction of 2.8%. Disappointed with the fiscal stimulus, the Nifty 50 corrected in the first half but recovered in the second half on improving global sentiment, as economies across the world emerged out of lockdowns.
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Apr -2020
Waiting for the economic activity to return- Equity Market View
The nation was under lockdown throughout the month of April. The Nifty-50 Index recovered 14.7% in the month (best calendar month since May’09). The BSE mid-cap and BSE small-cap Indices posted 14% and 16% gains respectively. Among sectoral indices, BSE healthcare gained 26%, followed by auto (+24%) and oil & gas (+20%) indices.
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Mar -2020
Fiscal sops and stimulus to push long end yields - Fixed Income Market View
CPI for March 2020 printed at 6.58% which was higher than RBI's target of 4% but lower than market expectation of 6.72%. Core inflation (helped by petering off of mobile tariffs) also declined from 4.16% to 4.08%.
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Mar-2020
Market View and portfolio positioning
The equity markets globally and in India have seen a massive correction due to the uncertainties associated with the global macro linked primarily to coronavirus and also the volatility associated with crude oil. The issue with coronavirus is the uncertainty with regards to the time it will linger, fatality rates and the fear of the unknown
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Mar-2020
Impact of recent market volatility on Arbitrage Funds
The recent market movements have been unprecedented and this has led to several questions being raised in the minds of the investor as well as the distribution community. Please check some key points on the impact of recent market volatility on Arbitrage Funds.
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Feb -2020
Fear of virus bigger than the virus itself ?- Equity Market View
In February 2020, all the major global indices closed in the red. With high chances of WHO declaring the coronavirus disease as a pandemic, global markets saw a sharp drawdown (US Markets saw the worst weekly fall since the GFC).
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Jan-2020
Earnings are seeing buoyancy led by lower tax rates and low base of FY 2019- Equity Market View
The Union Budget was presented on 1st February and while there were no stark negatives, a lack of stimulus and policy measures disappointed in the backdrop of heightened expectations.
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Dec-2019
RBI steps in to cool-off yields - Fixed Income Market View
There is a dichotomy that is prevalent in the markets with macros being weak (high fiscal deficit, overall slowdown, inflation inching up, low credit growth) while markets are scaling new highs on the back of continued flows, risk-on sentiment getting stronger and in general loose fiscal policies.
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Nov-2019
A modest recovery in growth is expected in second half of FY20 - Equity Market View
Indian markets rallied in the second half of the month driven by both global risk-on and some positive reforms announced locally. Market sentiment was buoyed following the
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Oct-2019
Short-end rates fall on rate cut, long-end unchanged on fiscal worries - Fixed Income Market View
Result Season of Q2FY20 is seeing decent earnings growth as many companies are shifting to the reduced tax rates as announced by the government.
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Sep-2019
Definite shift in government approach towards corporate India - Equity Market View
Government has been talking about accelerating economic growth for quite some time and articulated its aspiration to be $5tn economy by 2024 but something missing to make this reality
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Aug-2019
Yields harden despite rate cut as fiscal concerns emerge - Fixed Income Market View
Pessimism is all around as major newspaper headlines are all about deteriorating economy, job losses etc. Though overall scenario looks challenging in the near term..
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Jul-2019
Volatility in the near term cannot be ruled out - Equity Market View
Budget presented in July post the completion of the general elections, stuck to the path of fiscal prudence and lowered fiscal deficit target to 3.3% of GDP.
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Jun-2019
Weak growth, improving liquidity and rate cut push down yields - Fixed Income Market View
Come July, the full year budget, progress of monsoon, trade war developments and RBI policy meet would be key monitorables. Economic growth and earnings recovery are key
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May-2019
Economy is currently in a transitionary mode - Equity Market View
Overall FY 19 NIFTY earnings growth stood close to 10%. Earnings shortfall in financials and Auto sectors are partially offset by currency led gains in IT sector.
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Apr-2019
Election event risk, tight liquidity keep yields elevated - Fixed Income Market View
Quarter 4 earnings have been mixed so far, though result season still has still one month to go. On 23rd May, the results of the ongoing general elections would be announced and provide short term direction to markets.
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